{
  "correctness": {
    "baseline_digest": "dd8991378be90907473c349dd815f5769fab02a4c2d961d1d5ba1bd75ecf8d43",
    "per_arm_correct": {
      "I1": true,
      "I2": true
    },
    "per_arm_digests": {
      "I1": [
        "dd8991378be90907473c349dd815f5769fab02a4c2d961d1d5ba1bd75ecf8d43"
      ],
      "I2": [
        "dd8991378be90907473c349dd815f5769fab02a4c2d961d1d5ba1bd75ecf8d43"
      ],
      "baseline": [
        "dd8991378be90907473c349dd815f5769fab02a4c2d961d1d5ba1bd75ecf8d43"
      ]
    }
  },
  "evidence_sha256": "309158697fda3399df828b4d41c6753bb3bc50a02cdd36a7312c9a0589dbf6b0",
  "incident_id": "incident2-missing-index",
  "limitations": [
    "Offline fixture, not a model result.",
    "Single machine, in-process DuckDB, threads=1; ratios, not absolute ms, are meaningful.",
    "Index build time is reported in setup_costs_ms and excluded from per-trial timings."
  ],
  "model_request": {
    "completion_sha256": "5df646fd03e9be7394b55ed3ec5b3c11452bf25d6560e0cae4feffd5ff3ded2d",
    "model": "stub-nemotron-offline",
    "model_hypotheses": 4,
    "provider": "offline-stub",
    "request_sha256": "cf33d176dc2a237f2a000ddc53729f16507a1dc8509283e16aaa03a8246cc727",
    "system_prompt_sha256": "c254b3c0013e9bf3f26d064fc61a0fdc56083ff5ce740b317e19de8a82173278",
    "user_prompt_sha256": "a3d3064f586a71295a1b2a1ea6e97ef85bc544184dfa708ae8ae2134c2e8f8b4"
  },
  "plan": {
    "approved_plan_sha256": "ccf6279946017a63277937a5cd30ecc0ec18e992d346bac3229a6d476d01525d",
    "arms": [
      "baseline",
      "I1",
      "I2"
    ],
    "mapped": [
      {
        "arm": "I1",
        "column": "customer_id",
        "model_confidence_diagnostic_only": 0.8,
        "model_hypothesis_id": "A",
        "patch_diff_sha256_never_executed": "07c31594eca345fe17c7900fdf14821f15440e6d05c471efa526332b6e6e68e2"
      },
      {
        "arm": "I2",
        "column": "order_id",
        "model_confidence_diagnostic_only": 0.5,
        "model_hypothesis_id": "B",
        "patch_diff_sha256_never_executed": null
      }
    ],
    "not_tested": [
      {
        "courtroom_label": "NOT TESTED",
        "detail": "column 'amount_cents' has no audited experiment (NOT TESTED)",
        "mechanism": "missing_index_lookup",
        "model_hypothesis_id": "C",
        "reason": "column_not_in_catalogue"
      },
      {
        "courtroom_label": "NOT TESTED",
        "detail": "no audited experiment for this mechanism on incident 2 (NOT TESTED)",
        "mechanism": "concurrent_dispatch",
        "model_hypothesis_id": "D",
        "reason": "mechanism_not_testable_here"
      }
    ],
    "plan_sha256": "ccf6279946017a63277937a5cd30ecc0ec18e992d346bac3229a6d476d01525d"
  },
  "provenance": {
    "api_spend_usd": 0.0,
    "cpu_count": 2,
    "created_utc": "2026-10-26T09:33:17.057145+00:00",
    "duckdb": "1.5.6",
    "label": "OFFLINE WORKFLOW DEMO: model reply SIMULATED (scripted fixture); timings MEASURED LOCAL",
    "meaning": "The hypotheses below were NOT produced by Nemotron. They exercise the validation, mapping, approval and evaluation pipeline. Timings were measured by this code on the machine below; not a Nebius run.",
    "model_source": "stub_model",
    "nebius_used": false,
    "nemotron_used": false,
    "network_calls": 0,
    "numpy": "2.5.3",
    "platform": "Linux-6.18.44-fc-v153-x86_64-with-glibc2.39",
    "python": "3.13.16",
    "scipy": "1.18.1"
  },
  "raw_samples_ms": {
    "I1": [
      102.25906000005125,
      122.97882699999718,
      90.24032499996792,
      97.63349199999993,
      90.70757999995749,
      100.82741099995474,
      96.28812000005382,
      113.35951000000932,
      89.16876900002535,
      89.49352400009047,
      98.21724699997958,
      103.83773399996699,
      88.21266500001457,
      91.09994699997515,
      93.07957099997566
    ],
    "I2": [
      437.56840100002137,
      396.3871600000175,
      505.20626699994864,
      499.4578859999592,
      372.64205899998615,
      367.910543999983,
      438.27987999998186,
      376.3174919999983,
      366.10782900004324,
      469.4418379999661,
      338.16988400008086,
      342.11613000002217,
      343.388725000068,
      352.9565940000339,
      390.6497010000294
    ],
    "baseline": [
      346.9778579999456,
      447.64880999991874,
      407.7965019999965,
      398.839687000077,
      410.31947399994806,
      380.90049400000225,
      389.02165299998615,
      443.13862900003187,
      350.8086379999895,
      337.5964429999385,
      340.52286799999365,
      343.43079699999635,
      345.88930099994286,
      393.33120599997073,
      372.29704000003494
    ]
  },
  "run_id": "incident2-agentic-offline-001",
  "schema": "rootrace2.incident-agentic-evidence.v1",
  "setup_costs_ms": {
    "I1": {
      "setup_ms": 484.549
    },
    "I2": {
      "setup_ms": 279.574
    },
    "baseline": {
      "setup_ms": 0.004
    }
  },
  "spec": {
    "alpha_family": 0.01,
    "arms": [
      "baseline",
      "I1",
      "I2"
    ],
    "candidates": {
      "I1": {
        "claim": "Point lookups on customer_id perform a full table scan.",
        "direct": true,
        "mechanism": "Add an index on orders(customer_id) so each lookup probes instead of scanning.",
        "setup_sql": [
          "CREATE INDEX idx_orders_customer ON orders(customer_id)"
        ]
      },
      "I2": {
        "claim": "The orders table lacks an index on its primary-looking column.",
        "direct": false,
        "mechanism": "Add an index on orders(order_id). The lookup query does not filter on order_id.",
        "setup_sql": [
          "CREATE INDEX idx_orders_order ON orders(order_id)"
        ]
      }
    },
    "effect_bands": {
      "I1": {
        "high": null,
        "low": 2.0
      },
      "I2": {
        "high": null,
        "low": 2.0
      }
    },
    "evaluator": "agents/evaluator_v2.py + agents/verdicts_v2.py (unchanged)",
    "incident_id": "incident2-missing-index",
    "key_seed": 42,
    "lookups_per_trial": 200,
    "plan_sha256": "ccf6279946017a63277937a5cd30ecc0ec18e992d346bac3229a6d476d01525d",
    "practical_threshold": 2.0,
    "query": "SELECT count(*), COALESCE(sum(amount_cents), 0) FROM orders WHERE customer_id = ?",
    "race_seed": 20261026,
    "rows": 1000000,
    "trials_per_arm": 15,
    "warmups_discarded": 2
  },
  "spec_sha256": "c40cd1b492650d647031cd774f4fdf52984e2f40f60a322f399fa9136e4b4e93",
  "verdicts": {
    "I1": {
      "baseline_median_ms": 380.90049400000225,
      "candidate_median_ms": 96.28812000005382,
      "ci95_ratio": [
        3.532758946094445,
        4.3362550957720964
      ],
      "correct": true,
      "courtroom_label": "VERIFIED",
      "evaluator_verdict": "SUPPORTED",
      "explanation": "Output identical to baseline, statistically significant after Holm correction, and at least 2.0x faster.",
      "n": [
        15,
        15
      ],
      "p_holm": 6.783642781650189e-06,
      "p_raw": 3.3918213908250945e-06,
      "ratio_of_medians": 3.9558410113292206,
      "winner_eligible": true
    },
    "I2": {
      "baseline_median_ms": 380.90049400000225,
      "candidate_median_ms": 376.3174919999983,
      "ci95_ratio": [
        0.8508316394629619,
        1.0842862168225347
      ],
      "correct": true,
      "courtroom_label": "INCONCLUSIVE",
      "evaluator_verdict": "FALSIFIED",
      "explanation": "Output identical, but the evidence does not meet the pre-registered win rule. Not a proven win and not a proven loss.",
      "n": [
        15,
        15
      ],
      "p_holm": 0.5614474146848649,
      "p_raw": 0.5614474146848649,
      "ratio_of_medians": 1.0121785516151451,
      "winner_eligible": false
    }
  }
}