{
  "correctness": {
    "baseline_digest": "dd8991378be90907473c349dd815f5769fab02a4c2d961d1d5ba1bd75ecf8d43",
    "per_arm_correct": {
      "I1": true,
      "I2": true
    },
    "per_arm_digests": {
      "I1": [
        "dd8991378be90907473c349dd815f5769fab02a4c2d961d1d5ba1bd75ecf8d43"
      ],
      "I2": [
        "dd8991378be90907473c349dd815f5769fab02a4c2d961d1d5ba1bd75ecf8d43"
      ],
      "baseline": [
        "dd8991378be90907473c349dd815f5769fab02a4c2d961d1d5ba1bd75ecf8d43"
      ]
    }
  },
  "evidence_sha256": "41317100a29ebf48196e128fb67ab79348dece214d0245d5d3d3f54475f959e1",
  "incident_id": "incident2-missing-index",
  "limitations": [
    "Single machine, in-process DuckDB, threads=1; absolute times are not portable, only the ratio under these controls.",
    "Index build time is reported in setup_costs_ms and is NOT included in the per-trial timings.",
    "Arms are interleaved but share one process, so memory/cache effects are controlled, not eliminated.",
    "n is the trial count in the spec; one run is one observation, not a benchmark suite."
  ],
  "provenance": {
    "cpu_count": 2,
    "created_utc": "2026-10-26T08:01:50.685235+00:00",
    "duckdb": "1.5.6",
    "label": "LOCAL MEASUREMENT (dev container)",
    "meaning": "Measured by this code on the machine below. Not a Nebius run. Not a replay. No model was called.",
    "nebius_used": false,
    "nemotron_used": false,
    "numpy": "2.5.3",
    "platform": "Linux-6.18.44-fc-v153-x86_64-with-glibc2.39",
    "python": "3.13.16",
    "scipy": "1.18.1"
  },
  "raw_samples_ms": {
    "I1": [
      93.8760450000018,
      112.46213699996588,
      95.47522799999797,
      100.55670799999916,
      116.26835800001345,
      121.66937799997868,
      97.59610100002192,
      95.90610200001493,
      92.16794299999265,
      118.62297499999386,
      93.1196910000267,
      98.5874969999827,
      127.36162599998124,
      94.97879499997453,
      104.40443600003846
    ],
    "I2": [
      469.9627310000096,
      443.48831900003916,
      357.99513399996385,
      386.64244099999223,
      430.60355099999015,
      389.9848799999859,
      466.91622999998117,
      529.1273479999745,
      356.080994000024,
      450.48830700000053,
      499.65424399999847,
      687.0906390000187,
      399.1557780000221,
      412.91351500001383,
      466.00814800001444
    ],
    "baseline": [
      457.64582600003223,
      389.73068299998204,
      372.4852310000415,
      396.0324540000215,
      392.30335499996727,
      596.490469999992,
      440.30876400000807,
      347.80358099999376,
      360.8258819999719,
      355.20842900001526,
      562.9976989999932,
      503.60663800000793,
      566.7503520000423,
      403.01673499999424,
      461.0412179999912
    ]
  },
  "run_id": "incident2-container-001",
  "schema": "rootrace2.incident-evidence.v1",
  "setup_costs_ms": {
    "I1": {
      "setup_ms": 564.378
    },
    "I2": {
      "setup_ms": 351.09
    },
    "baseline": {
      "setup_ms": 0.004
    }
  },
  "spec": {
    "alpha_family": 0.01,
    "arms": [
      "baseline",
      "I1",
      "I2"
    ],
    "candidates": {
      "I1": {
        "claim": "Point lookups on customer_id perform a full table scan.",
        "direct": true,
        "mechanism": "Add an index on orders(customer_id) so each lookup probes instead of scanning.",
        "setup_sql": [
          "CREATE INDEX idx_orders_customer ON orders(customer_id)"
        ]
      },
      "I2": {
        "claim": "The orders table lacks an index on its primary-looking column.",
        "direct": false,
        "mechanism": "Add an index on orders(order_id). The lookup query does not filter on order_id.",
        "setup_sql": [
          "CREATE INDEX idx_orders_order ON orders(order_id)"
        ]
      }
    },
    "effect_bands": {
      "I1": {
        "high": null,
        "low": 2.0
      },
      "I2": {
        "high": null,
        "low": 2.0
      }
    },
    "evaluator": "agents/evaluator_v2.py + agents/verdicts_v2.py (unchanged)",
    "incident_id": "incident2-missing-index",
    "key_seed": 42,
    "lookups_per_trial": 200,
    "practical_threshold": 2.0,
    "query": "SELECT count(*), COALESCE(sum(amount_cents), 0) FROM orders WHERE customer_id = ?",
    "race_seed": 20261026,
    "rows": 1000000,
    "trials_per_arm": 15,
    "warmups_discarded": 2
  },
  "spec_sha256": "8dff265e4659681e9030bea810aa9d49483483c50e3b700270c23b953623ec40",
  "verdicts": {
    "I1": {
      "baseline_median_ms": 403.01673499999424,
      "candidate_median_ms": 98.5874969999827,
      "ci95_ratio": [
        3.4883149606172457,
        4.8289093166659
      ],
      "correct": true,
      "courtroom_label": "VERIFIED",
      "evaluator_verdict": "SUPPORTED",
      "explanation": "Output identical to baseline, statistically significant after Holm correction, and at least 2.0x faster.",
      "n": [
        15,
        15
      ],
      "p_holm": 6.783642781650189e-06,
      "p_raw": 3.3918213908250945e-06,
      "ratio_of_medians": 4.087909189945911,
      "winner_eligible": true
    },
    "I2": {
      "baseline_median_ms": 403.01673499999424,
      "candidate_median_ms": 443.48831900003916,
      "ci95_ratio": [
        0.8363173147778737,
        1.1465343888871549
      ],
      "correct": true,
      "courtroom_label": "INCONCLUSIVE",
      "evaluator_verdict": "FALSIFIED",
      "explanation": "Output identical, but the evidence does not meet the pre-registered win rule. Not a proven win and not a proven loss.",
      "n": [
        15,
        15
      ],
      "p_holm": 0.6186695570822622,
      "p_raw": 0.6186695570822622,
      "ratio_of_medians": 0.9087426156086845,
      "winner_eligible": false
    }
  }
}