Where the hypotheses came from: Frozen recorded live Nemotron output (evidence/live-smoke-test.hypotheses.json, 2026-09-19, nvidia/NVIDIA-Nemotron-3-Nano-30B-A3B via Nebius Token Factory); this race itself called no model.
Excessive per-call query fanout due to per-customer fetches
- Mechanism:
- customer_summary_slow issues a separate query for each of the 501 customers, resulting in 501 queries per call and heavy client-side loop overhead
- What was actually run (direct):
- query fanout eliminated via a single GROUP BY query (customer_summary_fast)
Bars use a log scale; the numbers are the medians.
speed ratio 200.74× · 95% CI [176.17, 224.07] · Holm p 1.02e-5
Output identical to baseline: yes · ratio recomputed in your browser from the raw samples: matches
evaluator verdict: SUPPORTED
High JSON serialization and network overhead per query
- Mechanism:
- each of the 501 queries returns a small JSON response that must be serialized and transmitted, inflating total latency
- What was actually run (proxy):
- per-row Python object construction cost, with query count held fixed at the observed 501 queries per call
Bars use a log scale; the numbers are the medians.
speed ratio 1.05× · 95% CI [0.90, 1.16] · Holm p 8.61e-1
Output identical to baseline: yes · ratio recomputed in your browser from the raw samples: matches
Predicted at least 2.0x; the measured interval is below that and includes no meaningful gain.
evaluator verdict: FALSIFIED
Missing index causing slow query execution on the database side
- Mechanism:
- the individual per-customer queries likely scan large portions of the underlying table repeatedly, leading to high execution time per query
- What was actually run (direct):
- per-query execution cost with an index on orders.customer_id, fanout unchanged
Bars use a log scale; the numbers are the medians.
speed ratio 1.00× · 95% CI [0.86, 1.10] · Holm p 8.61e-1
Output identical to baseline: yes · ratio recomputed in your browser from the raw samples: matches
Predicted at least 2.0x; the measured interval is below that and includes no meaningful gain.
evaluator verdict: FALSIFIED
Thread pool saturation from launching many concurrent queries
- Mechanism:
- spawning 501 queries per call may saturate the application's thread pool or executor, causing context‑switch overhead and higher latency
- What was actually run (precondition):
- concurrent/thread-pooled query dispatch
Nothing was measured for this hypothesis.
Precondition check found no thread-pool or async primitives in the incident code, so the mechanism is absent. No experiment was run.
evaluator verdict: NOT_APPLICABLE
Proof bundle
evidence/incident1-v2-warm-container-001.race-evidence.json
sha256 9ef78a767b860d8c73a37de8081e9b2070197a95d91b2e10543dde0a4a399fbf (26,326 bytes)
The frozen original contains local file paths, so it is not published. A path-redacted public copy is: same numbers, raw samples and verdicts; 4 path strings replaced by a placeholder.
public copy sha256 b87e1e429fb3f31448ac1178eb90b05b65a948f1bc45381c4e489afe3777aa64 (24,044 bytes)
frozen original sha256 9ef78a767b860d8c73a37de8081e9b2070197a95d91b2e10543dde0a4a399fbf
The original's hash is checked offline in the repository: python scripts/verify_frozen_evidence.py and sha256sum evidence/incident1-v2-warm-container-001.race-evidence.json.
Offline re-check: sha256sum <file> must print the SHA-256 shown above; the stored raw samples reproduce every ratio on this page